European gasoline shipments decline sharply in peak US driving months.

Gasoline shipments from Europe have plummeted to multi-year lows recently.

US gasoline stockpiles are now at their lowest point for June since 2014, according to the EIA's statistics.

US-bound European gasoline shipments plummet in peak summer months as domestic demand surges on the continent, exacerbated by refinery shutdowns and wartime disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict, industry insiders and experts reveal through recent data analysis.

The US relies heavily on European gasoline imports to stabilize its market, which is the largest consumer of this fuel globally. The recent US-Iran agreement, announced on Sunday, does not alter the current precarious state of gasoline supply and demand in the short term.

European imports of gasoline and blending materials plummeted in recent times, averaging a daily low of 1.63 million barrels last month, significantly lower than the 1.9 million bpd recorded during the same period in previous years, as reported by Kpler. This decline marks a record for May since 2020.

Gasoline shipments from Europe to the US are projected to drop significantly in Q2, with an estimated 252,000 barrels per day being exported, a level not seen since 2020. Approximately 88% of these exports will be delivered to East Coast ports.

Energy Aspects' analyst Rachel Lauffer notes that European gasoline exports will likely be lower than usual due to refinery closures reducing output and increasing domestic consumption within the region. The firm forecasts a significant increase in demand for gasoline from Europe's largest economies, reaching 2.46 million bpd by June, up by 120,000 bpd.

Signs of a tightening global gasoline market are further exacerbated by declining European shipments during peak US driving months. U.S. inventory levels have reached their lowest point for this time of year since 2014, prompting forecasters to predict an unusually large summer deficit in overall gasoline supplies. Meanwhile, refineries are adjusting production to prioritize middle distillates like jet fuel and avoid shortages linked to the Iran conflict.

A recent agreement between the U.S. and Iran led to a three-month low in crude prices on Sundays. For the first time since mid-April, U.S. drivers saw gas prices dip under $4 per gallon on those days.

Analysts warn that months of normalization are needed for oil supplies to recover, implying that the physical market for gasoline and other fuels may remain constrained throughout the peak US driving season ahead.

According to Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby, even with ideal market conditions, it's still several months before a balance between supply and demand is achieved in the market.

Escalating tensions in the Iran conflict have already begun to impact fuel output at key Middle Eastern refining hubs.

As tensions escalate with Iran, refineries are adapting their production strategies by increasing output of diesel and jet fuel at the expense of gasoline components sourced from the Middle East, resulting in a significant impact on global gasoline supplies. According to Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy, this shift is having a ripple effect throughout the market.

Production levels at refineries are measured by their output of various fuels, with each facility adjusting its yield based on current profitability. Maximum capacity utilization is a challenge for American refiners due to limited excess production potential.

Rystad's Shah notes that despite a non-structural shortage, market equilibrium appears precarious as peak summer demand approaches, with the added factor of the World Cup potentially increasing US demand for gasoline, exacerbating an already anticipated supply squeeze.

Energy Aspects forecasts that the global gasoline market will face a significant shortfall, with deficits projected at 1 million bpd for May and 1.13 million bpd in June, exceeding their respective five-year averages by substantial margins.

Sharp declines in US gasoline inventories can be attributed in part to a surge in domestic refinery output focused on producing distillate fuels, analysts at Goldman Sachs note.

As of June 5, U.S. gasoline reserves had dwindled to an all-time low of 215 million barrels in mid-June.

So far, higher oil prices have had a surprisingly small effect on Americans' summer travel itineraries, with findings from Bank of America's 2026 survey indicating that nearly one-third of respondents won't be altering their plans and 40% are actually preparing to attend the World Cup.

The US government is focusing on maintaining affordable gasoline prices for American drivers during the summer months, according to Ines Goncalves of Kpler.